Is Union Pacific the slowly dripping IV in the two-builder market? When Union Pacific goes offline, will EMD stop working? Virtually all of the modern locomotives at BNSF’s Transcon are GE products; CSX engraved “4500” on their SD70MACs to make room for the 700 series ES44ACs. Are they curtains?

I see a modern C628 in the SD70ACe; bulky, sturdy and a product that itself works adequately well. However, its failure to generate ES44-sized gains portends that EMD R&D will create a C636 in its next go. Poetic justice.

I grew up with the SD40-2. It is impossible to believe that crowds of hundreds are fading away; with them, perhaps their builder. I was too young to feel the pain of an alcohol-enthusiast. I get it now.

Will the world allow a one-builder market? Will EMD be able to keep its costs low and its performance high enough to satisfy especially Union Pacific and at least one or two other railroads: KCS, CN, NS? If EMD dies out, will locomotive building be a lucrative enough venture against GE and GEVO to attract an upstart?

GE patiently waited for its opportunity. A Dash-7 was often seen among the SD40-2 bookends. EMD had the products; GE was ordered to keep the game fair.

Traction AC stepped up to GE. The railways were not concerned with history; they wanted a reliable product as cheap and fast as possible. When R&D was resolved, GE won. We had the SD70MAC and the AC4400CW, with the AC4400CW being a near 3:1 favourite.

EMD does not have the funds to stay in business; GE could beat slow locomotive sales when it got the occasional bone. If there is going to be a second builder, it will have to be big and strong enough to live in the GE kennel for a while.